Observation and Analysis of Highest/Lowest Resale Prices

• The highest resale price and lowest resale price are both increased.
• The gap between highest resale price and lowest resale price are widened in absolute dollar term.
• The lowest resale price increased relatively more than the highest resale price.
• The highest resale prices raised from Jan 1990, to Nov 1996 (7 years, +278.15%), followed by a decrease to Sep 2005 (9 years, -45.11%), then raised again till Feb 2020 (15 years, +107.49%).
• The lowest resale prices raised from Jan 1990, to Feb 1998 (8 years, +1200%), followed by a decrease to Nov 2001 (3 years, -61.11%), raised again to Mar 2013 (12 years, +828.57%), then dropped again till Feb 2020 (7 years, -42.31%).

At first glance, you may noticed that the gap between highest and lowest resale price widened in the past 30 years in absolute monetary sense. That's true, in Jan 1990, the highest resale price is 233,000$, lowest resale price is 6,000$, difference is 227,000$
while in Feb 2020, the highest resale price is 1,025,000$, lowest resale price is 150,000$, corresponding difference is 875,000$, which is nearly 4 times the value as of in Jan 1990.

Those high resale price flats are normally bigger flats located at centre areas, and low resale price flats are smaller flats located at rural areas.

You may have the idea that the highest resale price are growing faster than the lowest resale price since the spread between them became bigger. Or from an investor's point of view, you may think that investing in bigger flats in centre areas will give you a better return, however the data and calculation suggest the opposite.

The highest resale price increased from 233,000$ in Jan 1990 to 1,025,000$ in Feb 2020, that is an overall 339.91% rise.
233,000 x (1+g) = 1,025,000
g = 339.91%

Or an annual compounded growth of 5.06%
233,000 x (1+G_annual)³⁰ = 1,025,000
G_annual = 5.06%

while the lowest resale price raised from 6,000$ in Jan 1990 to 150,000$ in Feb 2020, that is a 2400% increase.
6,000 x (1+g) = 150,000
g = 2400%

corresponding annual compounded growth rate of 11.33%
6,000 x (1+G_annual)³⁰ = 150,000
G_annual = 11.33%

The ratio between the highest and lowest resale price is from 233,000/6,000 = 38.83 in Jan 1990, to 1,025,000/150,000 = 6.83, the difference actually decreased significantly.

Observation and Analysis of Number of Resale Transactions

• One spike during the 1998-1999 Asia Financial Crisis in the last 30 years.
• Generally one month there is about 2.2k resale transactions.

During the Asia Financial Crisis, number of resale flat transactions spiked from about 2,750 per month to nearly 6,000 transactions per month that is a 118.18% hike. Flats changed hand more than doubled during that period, it suggested that it was the most speculative period in the flat resale market.

There are 803,050 transactions from Jan 1990 to Feb 2020, total 362 months, hence the average transaction per month is 803,050/362 = 2,218, this number is pretty stable during the past 30 years.

Observation and Analysis of Total Resale Value Each Month

• Two major spikes, one in 1998-1999, another one in 2009-2010.
• Generally one month there is about 653.35 million value is transferred.

During the 1998-1999 Asia Financial Crisis, number of resale flat transactions spiked, so did the total resale values, from about 800 million per month to nearly 1.4 billion per month that is a 75% hike.

During the 2009-2010 period, the total resale values, from about 700 million per month to nearly 1.2 billion per month corresponding to a 71.43% hike.

Total transaction value during the past 30 years is 236,514,834,026$, on average each month the transaction value is 236,514,834,026$/362 = 653,355,895$.